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Estimating Risk for Developing Epilepsy: A population-based study in Rochester, Minnesota

In the December 2011 issue of Neurology (Neurology 2010: 76:23-27), Drs. Hessdorfer and colleagues analyzed life-time risk in cumulative incidence of epilepsy among Rochester, Minnesota residents between 1960 and 1979. This data is utilized in order to predict the number of individuals who will likely develop epilepsy in the United States in similar populations across the country. The investigators identified 412 individuals with incident epilepsy and calculated that the life-time risk for developing epilepsy was 1.6 percent to age 50, 3 percent to age 80 with a cumulative incidence of 1.7 percent to age 50 and 3.4 percent to age 80. This translates into approximately 12 million individuals in the United States who will develop epilepsy at some point in their lifetime. Although the information is based on a small city in southern Minnesota, this information would likely mean in some urban areas where stroke is more prevalent we could see even higher lifetime incidence of epilepsy in those locations. This is important information as it shows that there has been an underestimation of the number of individuals with seizures in the US and therefore revisions are needed to assess manpower in order to accurately resource what is needed to care for these individuals.

Joseph Sirven, M.D.
Editor-in-Chief, epilepsy.com 
Last Reviewed: 1/15/11


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